2005 NBA PLAYOFF PREVIEWOnce again, spring is here, as the air fills with pollen, the trees fill with leaves, Michigan fills with snow :) and NBA Players finally fill with enthusiastic concern. However, this year has been a bit different than previous NBA seasons. Denver, New Jersey, Dallas, Detroit, and Houston all come roaring into the post-season red hot. This tide is going to make a huge difference. So
like last year, here is a reiteration of the 4 necessary keys to turning "Slamma Jamma In Yo Face Action" (aka the bling factor) on its head and winning an NBA Championship...
1. DEFENSE *clap clap* DEFENSE--In spite of the new anti-Pistons rules about handchecking, defense is still the most important ingrediant for winning a title. Last year, I was all about Detroit and San Antonio. This year, due to mutant offenses, there is a larger field of teams to watch. Nevertheless, San Antonio and Detroit are once again #1 and #2 in points allowed at 88.4 and 89.5 respectively. And speaking of hot teams, New Jersey, Indiana, Houston, and Memphis all have defenses worth keeping an eye on. In the opinion of the Dar, this is going to dictate how the playoffs unfold, as the old cliche goes; "Defense wins championships." And this year won't be any different.
2. Secondly, an ability to score SOME points is highly in demand this year. Last year we watched Indiana, Detroit, and New Jersey play a very tedious snail of a pace game with scores in the 60s. Thanks to handchecking, we witnessed some of the worst offense in NBA history. On the other hand, this year we are going to have to watch out for offensive jaugernauts like Phoenix, Miami, Sacramento, and Seattle. If these guys heat up, anything could happen this year. So keep in mind, any sorta playoff preview is going to be filled with many wild cards and predictions that are totally off base.
3. As always, playoff experience is going to bite alotta teams this year. Last year we saw Detroit and Los Angeles fight their way to the finals based on gutsy veteran leadership. It's for this reason, I can't see Phoenix, Denver, or Seattle, playing that many games this May. These young teams certainly have the regular season record to suggest that they may go deep. However, in the NBA, more than any other sport, teams must pay their dues if they are to survive and win the big 16 necessary for the NBA Title.
4. Finally, don't forget the implosion factor. Whether it's getting popped by the injury train, or Derek Fisher nailing an impossible last minute shot, there's many demoralizing factors that could contribute to a team falling apart at the most important moment. So in 2005, who's gonna crash and burn like the 2004 Spurs?
Well here's the rundown of the playoffs as I see it...
1. Miami over 8. New Jersey in 7. Woe unto ye who misunderestimate this Nets team. With Jason Kidd and Vince Carter firing on all cylanders, this team roars into the playoffs redhot. Though Miami, was simply resting up, it is the opinion of the Daily Rant that you gotta put the nuts to your opponents face and hit the playoffs in full stride. Of course, in the end New Jersey doesn't have the bodies to throw at Shaq, Collins and Krstic (can that guy have fewer vowels in his name?) have 12 fouls to give in the chess match known as Hacka Shaq. In addition, a partially healthy Richard Jefferson, will also help reveal the weakness that is the Heat supporting cast. Though they will survive, the Heat shall be revealed!
2. Detroit over 7. Philadelphia in 5. I'm a bit weary to see Iverson in the first round. However, as the
Sports Guy pointed out in his preview (surprisingly a lot Different than the Dar's), Chris Webber was never fully integrated into the 76ers game. Thus, I am sure we will have one game where Iverson will put the world on his shoulders and single handedly beat the Pistons. But otherwise, this is a team game and nobody plays as a better unit than these world champion Pistons. Not to underestimate Iguodala or Krover. But, they are young, and will not be able to step it up compared to a veteran team as hot as the Pistons.
6. Indian over 3. Boston in 6. I have to agree with Seth and
disagree with The Sports Guy on this one. Though Boston could get hot and show why they ranked 4th in PPG, I think Indiana will overcome and show why they are ranked 4th in points allowed. In addition, as the year's go by, I think we are going to see less and less of the Carlisle predictability factor that has hampered his teams the last 3 years. Though Boston will shoot their lights out in a couple of games (just like in the first round series in 2003), look for Carlisle to out coach Doc Rivers as defense wins the day.
4. Chicago over 5. Washington in 7. Talk about 2 teams limping into the playoffs. On the one hand Chicago has been popped by the injury train, so they will have to play without Luol Deng and Eddy Curry. Though this series is a toss up to see who can get whooped by Miami, I think Chicago has just the right amount of playoff savy, defensive minded veterans to pull this off in the end. But keep in mind this is my least assured prediction.
1. Phoenix over 8. Memphis in 7. Talk about a showcase of 2 very different approaches. Phoenix likes to run and gun and shoot your lights out as they finished the season averaging 110.4 ppg. On the other hand, Mike Fratello's Grizzlies are a grind it out kind of team built for Tondar. Phoenix will win out in the end, but not until after Memphis shows us how to take this Suns team apart.
2. San Antonio over 7. Denver in 7. It's rare to have the Western Conference Finals in the first round of the playoffs. However, San Antonio was a 59 win team, while Denver has recently been playing like a 67 win team. This will certainly be one of the most exciting series of this year's playoffs as we see George Karl's uptempo Doug Moe offense push the Spurs to their limits. In the end, the Spurs experience and backcourt will win out, but not until K-Mart, Nene, and Marcus Camby grind the hobbled Tim Duncan down. Like nuclear war, there won't really be a winner, but San Antonio will be the team that advances.
6. Sacramento over 3. Seattle in 6. This would have been an exciting series if the SuperSonics hadn't been popped by the injury train and came in dead cold with a .273 winning percentage in April. Like the Celtics, I think Seattle's ability to shoot the lights out will give them a couple of games, but look for Sac-to's playoff experience to be enough to send Seattle home.
4. Dallas over 5. Houston in 6. This is another great matchup. Jeff Van Gundy plays a Tondar style posession driven game. While on the other hand, Avery Johnson has the Mavericks playing defense for the first time since I have been watching the NBA. I would REALLY like to give this series to Houston. However,due to injury, the Rockets are being forced to start Clarence Weatherspoon against Tondar's 2005 MVP Dirk Nowitzki, I have no choice but to go with Dallas in this one.
SECOND ROUND
4. Dallas over 1. Phoenix in 6. This is where the wheels will finally fall off of the Phoenix Suns. They had a great run as Amare Stoudemire came of age as a real All Star and Steve Nash stepped up his game and became an MVP caliber player. On the other hand, Phoenix, and especially Nash, DO NOT PLAY DEFENSE. This will finally catch up to them as Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and the veteran, Michael Finley frustrate and stick it to this young inexperienced Suns team.
2. San Antonio over Sacramento in 5. With the Western Conference Finals behind them, the Spurs will have a much easier series as they systematically destroy the Kings. On the bright side, Sacramento will get healthy and be ready to rock for 60 plus wins next year. However, in my crystal ball, I see this as the series where that nagging ankle comes back to haunt Tim Duncan.
1. Miami over 4. Chicago in 4. Chicago will win a hard fought first round series with guts, experience, and homecourt advantage. Unfortunately against Miami they will have none of that going for them.
2. Detroit over 6. Indiana in 6. Every dynasty has a team they need to beat on for supremacy. The Red Wings had the Avalanche. The Bad Boys had Jordan's Bulls. Shaq's Lakers had Chris Webber's Kings. The Hard Workin' Pistons have Rick Carlisle's Pacers. This series comes as a result of David Stern's decree, and 'so let it be written, so let it be done.' This will certainly ratchet up the grudge match between these two teams, and sets the stage for Detroit's ultimate demise. However, without Artest, Indiana will have to take another year of lumps.
CONFERENCE FINALS
2. Detroit over 1. Miami in 6. The Sports Guy has a good rundown of why Miami can't beat Detroit. Ole Tondar sees Miami's problems as 3 fold. First, Miami doesn't have the smothering defense one would expect from a Van Gundy team that almost won 60 games. In fact, they have been giving up 95 points a game. Though this could be a result of them scoring 101.5 ppg, I see this as a greater problem of simply not having enough defensive discipline. Secondly, I don't think Dwyane Wade is quite experienced enough to be able to translate his 24.1 ppg into the final nail in the coffin for Detroit. Look for Chauncey and Tayshaun to increase the defensive pressure. While Wade averaged a NBA second worst 4.2 turnovers per game, look for that to increase as Detroit puts the hobnail boot to his neck. And in the end, what will finally do the Heat in is their lack of supporting cast to really stick it to Detroit when the time comes. Sure Shaq will get his, and even Wade to a certain degree. However, in the end Eddie Jones, Haslem, Mourning, and Laettner, just won't have enough in the tank to support Shaq and give enough to overcome a Pistons team with Tayshaun, 'Sheed, and Rip Hamilton firing on all cylanders.
4. Dallas over 2. San Antonio in 6 The second great Texas Showdown of this year's playoffs will have us witness the wheels coming off Tim Duncan and his pouty face. The pounding received at the hands of the Nuggets will finally catch up to TD. Though Ginobli and Parker will provide enough of a spark to win 2 games. The Spurs will be no match for a Mavericks team that enters the playoffs with a 9 game winning streak. Plus if Dallas, can sharpen their skills against Phoenix, like the Pistons they are gonna be 2HOT2HANDLE come late May (sorry, I will never blog like that again).
NBA FINALSDetroit (54-28) over Dallas (58-24) in 5. To get to this point I had to make some unconventional predictions, so I will not dwell too much on this showdown until June. It should be noted however, that Detroit won as many games as they did last year. Yeah, there's gonna be alotta playah haters at ESPN that are gonna be down on the champs. However, I just don't see anybody being able to beat a healthy Pistons team with great defense and Championship experience. Now, the media has certainly pointed out the Pistons shortcomings this year. Between the brawl in the first 10 games, and Larry Brown's loose lips and detriment hip, ESPN has plenty of reasons to stir up faux controversy. Thus I say look to history and remember that the defending champion
1995 Houston Rockets finished the season with a 47-35 record before going on to sweep a young Orlando Magic team led by Shaq in the NBA Finals. I see this year's Pistons the same way. Though the bench is a bit shorter, it is more talented. Carlos Arroyo, Antonio McDyess, and Lindsey Hunter could easily be starting for many teams around the league. Plus, going into the playoffs Coach Larry Brown opted to keep Darvin Ham and Darko Milicic on the roster instead of Carlos Delfino. Obviously, he was thinking ahead to the Eastern Conference Finals where Ham and Darko provide an extra 12 fouls for a Hacka Shaq game plan. In addition, Darko's presence is a great signal for opposing teams that they have lost a game. Nothing the Pistons do is more demoralizing than letting their Serb get some junk time against you in the last few minutes of the 4th.
In conclusion, it should be a good run. Compared to years past, this is a wide open field with alotta hot teams that could continue to roll right through the playoffs. I know I'm looking forward to the playoffs, so just be prepared to get crazy righ now cuz I don't know about y'all, but Tondar Crazy in Love wit dis game.