Tondar's Daily Rant

Prepare yourself for the writings of Tondar the Destroyer, Baron of Atlanta, Rightful Heir to the Throne of Spain, from whom all babies come. As his will be blogged, so let it be done.

Thursday, September 27, 2007


This is the first time since 1990 that neither the Tigers nor my Braves have made the playoffs. Though I don't really care as to the outcome of the rest of the season, Seth has some thoughts on Len Henning's piece on the Tigers falling just short...

He missed one really important injury, though. Vance Wilson. Mike Rabelo, who filled in for Wilson this year, had a hard time handling his pitchers this year. There was a jump of 1.22 in ERA this year between games Rabelo caught and Pudge caught. Last year, the difference was 0.44 between Wilson and Pudge.

Those are both huge numbers for that stat, but keep in mind, they're filling in for the best signal caller in the game, and perhaps ever.

What's one more run a game? Well, 0.78 runs per game times the number of innings caught by Rabelo divided by 9 inniings equals 33 more runs scored against us.

Subtract 33 from the 786 runs we've allowed this year, and plug into the formula for Pythagorean Won/Loss (it works perfectly since the Tigers are at their Pythagorean W/L this year)

(Runs Scored)^1.83
(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

(870^1.83)/870^1.83 + 753^1.83)

628,227/(628,227 + 470,617)

628,227/1,098,844 = .5717

.5717x(games played this year = 159)

Equals a record of 91-67

That would put us tied with the Yankees for the Wild Card and 3 games behind the Indians, just with Vance Wilson's better handling of pitchers. I didn't even include Vance's superior hitting!


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