Tondar's Daily Rant

Prepare yourself for the writings of Tondar the Destroyer, Baron of Atlanta, Rightful Heir to the Throne of Spain, from whom all babies come. As his will be blogged, so let it be done.

Wednesday, July 23, 2008

RED WINGS 2009-2010

From Seth...

So I was asked if we can afford Hossa again in 2009-10 or is this just a one-shot deal?

Well, who knows. Any number of things could happen between then and now. It's not impossible. But a few things need to happen:

1. Wings don't re-sign the other unrestricted F.A.'s except Zetterberg and Franzen. That means Samuelsson, Chelios and Conklin. Mikael makes $1.2 million, so he's pretty inexpensive. But if there's going to be room for Hossa, Sammy, who is a free agent after 2008-09, isn't as cheap as some of the young guns we could replace him with, like Derek Meech ($483,333), Darren Helm ($598,000), et al. Or, between now and then, another kid could pop, like Abdelkader, Emmerton, Ritola or Ryno. Again, it's nickels and dimes, but Jimmy Howard should be ready to take over for Conklin next year. If he isn't, Jimmy gets traded. If Conks is supurb, Jimmy gets in anyway, since Conklin is an FA and would probably sing elsewhere for more than we can afford. And any of the young defenders would be cheaper than the minimum we can honestly pay Chelios.

2. Zetterberg gets Pavel money. This isn't a given -- Zetts didn't ask for Pavel money before when he gave us a HUGE discount on his services. But he deserves the big bucks, and would be worth way more than Datsyuk money on the open market. I think he'll get $6.7 million for five to seven years.

3. Franzen gets Cleary money. The Mule is an enigma wrapped in a riddle, tied with a question, and covered in cheesy gordita ranch. If he keeps scoring at his torrid pace from last year and the playoffs, he's gonna be friggin rich, and it's either Hossa or him. But I think he'll cool to something between his goal-a-game hot streak and the sometime contributing Mule we all know and love. That means he'll get Dan Cleary money, 4 years, $2.8 million average salary. It's more than Holmstrom. We also seem to get the Swedish discount, for which Mule qualifies more than anyone else considering we found him after nobody else was scouting him anymore, pretty much unemployed in Greenland.

4. Kopecky is good but not SUPER AWESOME. If Tomas Kopecky returns from his injury season and has a breakout year, things get tighter. He's a restricted free agent after next year, but he doesn't give us the Swedish discount. He could be where Filpulla is now. But I think Kopi isn't quite at the level of Filpulla going into his RFA contract season, especially after missing so much time to injury last year. So he gets $880,000 -- a good salary for a good worker who shows flashes of really good this year.

5. The cap goes up again. It's been steadily rising, but the huge growth the cap has seen has to start cooling down now, especially seeing as the latest high of $56.7 million was after one of the best and most-watched finals in very long time. Unless they get Detroit and New York in the Finals this year, I can't see the league making a TON more. But if you believe in growth trends, and think the league hasn't fully recovered from the lockout, then a $60 million cap isn't out of the question.

That leaves $5,955,334 left under the cap for the Red Wings in 2009-10, replacing Chelios, Conklin and Samuelsson with Quincey, Howard and Helm. That's not enough to sign Hossa long term, especially since Lidstrom has to be signed again for 2010-11.

But Lidstrom there is the key. If Hossa signs another 1-year deal next year, the following season the Wings will see at least Maltby, Holmstrom, Lilja and Nick Lidstrom as free agents. Maltby will probably retire after 09-10. Homer might be at that point too. And Lidstrom? He'll be 40. It'll be the point where we start doing 1-year contracts with him and talking about how great No. 5 will look in the rafters. So there will be some cap relief coming.

Play around with it. If you can find a way to fit Hossa in 2009-10, let me know.

No.

Player Name

Position

2008-09

2009-10

13

Datsyuk, Pavel

C

6,700,000

6,700,000

51

Filppula, Valtteri

C

1,700,000

1,700,000

33

Draper, Kris

C

1,583,333

1,583,333

28

Kopecky, Tomas

C

500,000

880,000

44

Helm, Darren

C

598,000

598,000

40

Zetterberg, Henrik

LW

2,650,000

6,700,000

11

Cleary, Dan

LW

2,800,000

2,800,000

93

Franzen, Johan

LW

941,666

2,800,000

18

Maltby, Kirk

LW

883,333

883,333

14

Meech, Derek

LW/D

483,333

483,333

81

Hossa, Marion

RW

7,400,000

x

96

Holmstrom, Tomas

RW

2,250,000

2,250,000

26

Hudler, Jiri

RW

1,015,000

1,500,000

5

Lidstrom, Nicklas

D

7,450,000

7,450,000

28

Rafalski, Brian

D

6,000,000

6,000,000

23

Stuart, Brad

D

3,750,000

3,750,000

55

Kronwall, Niklas

D

3,000,000

3,000,000

3

Lilja, Andreas

D

1,200,000

1,200,000

22

Lebda, Brett

D

650,000

650,000

52

Ericsson, Jonathan

D

550,000

550,000

4

Quincey, Kyle

D

550,000

550,000

31

Osgood, Chris

G

1,416,667

1,416,667

35

Howard, Jimmy

G

600,000

600,000







Cap Penalty


0

0


Total Salary



54,044,666


Cap



60,000,000


Room Under Cap



5,955,334

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